# THE FORECAST LEDGER — dated commitments, July 9, 2026
# Not "the model suggests": what we expect experiments to FIND.
# Each entry: the bet, the kill condition, the horizon, the sector it
# rides on. Graded like everything here: the graveyard is the bond.

F1. THE KNEE EXISTS — THE FRAMEWORK'S EXISTENCE GATE.
  [AMENDED same day by the total assault (n78): the original
  "zero-freedom G prediction" was an overclaim — the extraction is
  underdetermined by one units ratio. What stands:]
  Bet: a frequency-swept decoherence experiment on modulated mass
  superpositions will find a Lorentzian knee (zero at rest, quadratic
  onset, saturation). When found, (knee, amplitude coefficient, G)
  must satisfy a ONE-UNKNOWN consistency relation: a knee incompatible
  with Cavendish for EVERY value of the free ratio still kills the
  framework. And the existence sentence, stated at its true size:
  A CONFIRMED FLAT NULL KILLS THE AUDIT, THE BUDGET, AND EVERY READING
  AT ONCE. Everything in this house rides on this experiment.
  Kill: flat null across >= 4 decades below the DP scale; or the
  consistency relation empty. Horizon: the 2030s optomechanics
  generation. Sector: the audit — and through it, everything.

F2. DIOSI-PENROSE'S FLOOR WILL NEVER BE FOUND.
  Bet: every improvement in macromolecule/levitated interferometry
  will keep returning ZERO intrinsic decoherence at rest, at every
  mass, forever — collapse models will be progressively excluded and
  never confirmed. Kill: any confirmed rest floor. Horizon: rolling,
  every year. Sector: violation-only monitoring (theorem + 18 orders
  measured).

F3. BMV WILL COME OUT POSITIVE.
  Bet: when gravitationally-mediated entanglement experiments run,
  entanglement WILL be generated (the monitored vacuum is a quantum
  channel). Kill: a confirmed BMV null. Horizon: 2030s.
  Sector: the audit's quantum character (n39 lineage).

F4. GAMMA STAYS AT 1, AND THE KNEE IS RIGID.
  Bet: every future improvement on Cassini's gamma will tighten around
  1 (the audit is state-independent); and if two labs at different
  potentials both find the knee, the frequencies will agree to the
  same precision (one parameter, two observables). Kill: any confirmed
  gamma deviation WITHOUT a co-measured knee sag, or vice versa —
  they must move together or the framework is wrong. Horizon: next
  solar-system missions. Sector: a = 0 (minimality + Cassini).

F5. SHORT-RANGE GRAVITY WILL KEEP RETURNING SMOOTH NULLS.
  Bet: sub-millimeter tests will continue to find NO smooth Yukawa
  deviation; if any deviation is ever confirmed, it will ALTERNATE in
  sign with a ~1/r envelope — the substrate's parity signature, which
  no other framework predicts. Kill: a confirmed smooth monotone
  deviation. Horizon: rolling. Sector: the lattice dressing (measured,
  n49).

F6. c_GW = c, FOREVER.
  Bet: every future multi-messenger event will confirm gravitational
  and electromagnetic speeds equal, to whatever precision is reached —
  both are substrate waves; there is nothing to differ. Kill: any
  confirmed speed difference. Horizon: every neutron-star merger.
  Sector: one substrate, one cone.

F7. NO LORENTZ VIOLATION AT ACCESSIBLE ENERGIES.
  Bet: preferred-frame searches (alpha_1, alpha_2, Hughes-Drever) will
  keep tightening around zero — the substrate scale is deep-UV and
  low-energy LI is emergent. Kill: any confirmed violation ABOVE the
  substrate-suppressed scale. Horizon: rolling. Sector: the n64 card
  under the Lorentz push.

F8. IF DARK ENERGY EVOLVES, G DRIFTS WITH IT.
  [Re-graded by n78: a registered DIRECTION, not a bet — without the
  pump's coefficient it cannot lose, so it cannot yet win.]
  Direction (coefficient owed to the pump's microphysics):
  a confirmed w(z) != -1 from DESI-class surveys will be accompanied,
  within sensitivity, by a nonzero Gdot/G in lunar-laser-ranging data
  — the pump powers both. Kill: robustly evolving dark energy with
  Gdot/G pinned at zero to better precision than the co-variation
  allows (quantified when the pump is built). Horizon: this decade's
  surveys. Sector: the active vacuum's metabolism (the last organ).

F9. THE QUANTITATIVE SCREENING CHECK (internal, this year).
  Bet: the measured running of the dressed stiffness S(q), compared
  properly with QED's one-loop beta function shape over the accessible
  window, will match in form, not just direction. Kill: wrong shape.
  Horizon: n78, ours to run. Sector: the EM reading.

F10. ANTIMATTER CLOCKS ARE ORDINARY CLOCKS.
  Bet (from the measured sign-rigidity of rates, n71/n73/n82 P-A):
  antihydrogen spectroscopy in Earth's potential will show EXACTLY the
  matter redshift, to every precision reached, regardless of any
  free-fall anomaly ever found. Deeper form: any EP violation found in
  nature will be an acceleration anomaly, never a clock anomaly.
  Kill: one confirmed clock-EP violation with intact force-EP.
  Horizon: ALPHA-class spectroscopy, rolling. Sector: the even/odd
  split of the monitored medium.

Wagers 1-3 are decisive for the framework as a whole; 4-7 are the
survival bets (each rolling year of nulls is evidence); 8 is the bold
one; 9 is homework. Signed into the record with twenty-six headstones
as collateral. — the program, July 9, 2026